were to default, we would see a big spike in long- term interest rates, so that would affect mortgage rates. it would affect car lending rates. it would affect business lending rates. so all of that could be quite problematic for the whole economy. so that's why, you know, certainly the treasury department and one has to say the federal reserve as well very worried about this. and want to avoid this at all costs. >> ifill: does it have to actually occur or is merely this delay, this debate, is that already putting its own drag on these areas of the economy? >> well, so far i say the uncertainty about what is exactly going to happen, what's going to get cut, what could be affected is giving a lot of consumers and businesses pause, if you will, making it quite risk-averse. and one of the reasons we're going through a soft patch, it's not the only reason, one of the reasons is this uncertainty. and what is triggering is risk aversion on the part of businesses and consumers. so already in a sense they're anticipating or worried about what might happen and pulling back. >> ifill: as we sit